Is it worth trying to predict beyond 5 years?

Speech at the Gartner Symposium in India

Had the great privilege this week to give a speech at the Gartner Symposium in India. Gartner is one of the world’s leading IT advisory firms, so I was fascinated to sit in on some sessions.

In their “top ten predictions” presentation, asides from the extraordinary things being predicted (e.g. by 2021 AI’s ability to create counterfeit-reality, including fake video, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it), what also struck me, was that the maximum period they were trying to predict was just five years.

Beyond that, it seems, it’s anybody’s guess. Wow.

In my own speech, I reflected on how uncertainty is inherent to an adventure: weather, terrain, people, animals, health. And actually, uncertainty is not only inherent to adventure, but to all of life, including all business life.

Dealing well with uncertainty does not so much depend on our IQ or our qualifications. It depends on intentionally developing the right attitudes and principles – the same attitudes and principles you need to have a successful adventure.

Being able to face our fears and take calculated risks

Having a growth mindset

Asking for advice

Getting up again after setbacks